Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 0.6 percent annual rate during the first quarter, the same pace as during the fourth-quarter and substantially slower than the 3.4 percent average since World War II. Overall, the latest batch of economic data showed little change in the cyclical trends of our leading indicators of business-cycle conditions this month. The percentage of leaders appraised as expanding (an index that reflects the judgments of AIER's research staff) increased to 38, up from 33 last month. Our cyclical score (which is based on a separate, purely mathematical analysis of the same leading indicators) increased to 47, while last month's score was revised downward from 50 to 46.  Both of these indexes remain below 50, indicating that recession is likely.

For a more in-depth analysis, please see the latest issue of Research Reports (subscription required). For a description of our methodology and a list of the economic indicators we use, click here.

AIER's Percentage of Leading Indicators Expanding: 38 Percent

AIER's Cyclical Score: 47 Percent