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Our primary leading indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to indicate that a recession is likely.
The percentage of leading indicators appraised as expanding increased from 33 last month to 40 this month. But it is still below 50, which suggests that a business contraction is probable.
Separately, the AIER cyclical score, which is based on a purely mathematical analysis of AIER's leading indicators, decreased to 49, and last month's score was revised downward from 55 to 51.
Our coincident and lagging indicators show that a business contraction has probably already begun. - Read a general description of our indicators and methods of analysis
- Receive detailed monthly analysis of business-cycle conditions, plus articles and books on a wide range of economic issues. Learn more about the benefits of Membership.
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