AIER's primary leading indicators of business-cycle conditions continue to indicate that a recession is likely. The percentage of leaders appraised as expanding held steady at 40 this month, unchanged from last month.
One of the leaders, initial claims for unemployment insurance, topped 400,000 for the first time in five years. Another, new housing permits, decreased to an annual rate of less than 900,000 for the first time since the 1990-91 recession.
Separately, the AIER cyclical score, which is based on a separate analysis of our 12 leading indicators, decreased to 47 this month, down from 49 last month.
Our coincident indicators deteriorated further this month. Only 20 percent are expanding, which suggests that a recession has probably begun.
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