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Trends in GDP: The Housing Bust Continues, Net Exports Surge PDF Print E-mail
Written by Kenneth D'Amica   
Thursday, 14 August 2008 19:00

In the second quarter of 2008, real Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, after having increased 0.9 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the same report, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was revised downward from 0.6 to -0.2.  This is the first time GDP has decreased since 2001. In addition, annual growth figures for 2005, 2006, and 2007 were revised downward.

The chart below shows the contribution of the different sectors of the economy to total GDP growth from 2006 to the present. In the recent quarter, consumption, net exports, and government spending contributed positively to GDP growth, while residential and nonresidential investment contributed negatively.

Changes in consumption added 1.08 percentage points to GDP growth this quarter. Within this category, slower motor vehicle purchases caused a drop in sales of durable goods (defined as goods expected to last three years or longer), though this was partially offset by a rise in sales of furniture and households goods.

Sales of nondurable goods, another subset of consumption, increased, with only a slight decrease in sales of fossil fuel sales, which may reflect a change in driving habits. Sales of services also increased, although spending on transportation services decreased slightly.  

In contrast, in the first quarter sales of both durable and nondurable goods decreased.

Slower growth in residential investment ("housing" in our chart) subtracted 0.62 percentage point  from GDP growth. This is smaller than the decrease in previous quarters. In other words, the downturn in the housing sector (more specifically, construction of new housing) is still dragging down GDP growth but by a smaller amount than in 2006 and 2007.

Nonresidential fixed investment added 0.25 percentage point to GDP growth.  Within this category, decreases in equipment sales, especially transportation equipment, were outpaced by growth in spending on nonresidental structures. 

This figure, however, was dwarfed by a large drop in private inventories. The change in private inventories subtracted 1.92 percentage points from GDP growth. Interpreting this decrease poses a problem. On the one hand, it may mean that firms are anticipating fewer sales, or receiving fewer orders, and so are producing less and drawing down their inventories. On the other hand, it could mean that sales have unexpectedly jumped, in which case falling inventories would be a positive signal. Here inventories are considered investment because they are made up of goods that were produced in anticipation of future sales.

Trade in goods and services was a large contributor to GDP growth in the second quarter.  An increase in exports added 1.16 percentage points to GDP growth, reflecting strong sales by goods producers. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, declined as well, which added another 1.26 percentage points to GDP growth.

All sectors of government grew last quarter, which added 0.67 percentage point to GDP growth.

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Comments (4)
Re: Previous 2 comments
4 Tuesday, 19 August 2008 18:03
Steve Meltzer
Thanks for your response. I do believe that the numbers are "tweaked". It would be great if AIER had an adjustment factor to establish the real numbers.
Revisions
3 Monday, 18 August 2008 08:33
Kenneth D'Amica
One of the major difficulties in the study of economics is data collection. Even seemingly simple studies may present insurmountable problems. The task of tracking the movements of an entire economy, and one so large and complex as that of the United States, is especially challenging, and with the added demands of timeliness, it is by luck alone that one might get close to the correct figure. If the government were all-seeing and all-knowing, they could provide us with accurate data on the first try. Thankfully, they are not.

Mr. Meltzer, while I agree with you that some important government agencies are profligate, irresponsible, and sometimes inclined to mislead, I see no reason to believe that this is true of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The GDP report released at the end of each quarter is called the Advance report, which is a rough estimate of the GDP changes. Later on, as more data becomes available, a Preliminary report is released. Only much later are the figures finalized. There is no subterfuge in this; it is an unavoidable part of data collection. The advance and preliminary reports exist only for the sake of timeliness, since this number has come to have a large degree of importance to the public perception of the economy.
Adjustments (Correcting) the initial govt reported numbers.
2 Friday, 15 August 2008 14:03
Steve Meltzer
Obviously the politicians want to stay in power so they have the initial reported numbers "tweaked" to look better than they are. It is also apparent when looking at the Federal Reserve's financials, that when there is "bad" news coming they are "injecting liquidity" into our stock markets. It is accomplished by "loaning" (non-recourse loans collaterized by junk bonds) to their Stamford, Westchester County, and Long Island investment banker buddies and large money center banks , whom knowing that their investment banks and large money center banks are about to invest a large sum of money in our markets probably can't resist the temptation to "front run" or buy in advance of the Fed liquidity injection. It is impossible to make a rational investment decision with distorted and wrong reported numbers and artificial manipulation of our markets. If "Joe Q. Citizen" did this, he would be put in jail!! The larger the manipulation and distortion the greater the coming nasty downtown. Free markets always if allowed, correct their problems by removing the bad performers and then after this adjustment period, the good performers do even better. A great example of proping up a bad performer is Bear Sterns, Fannie, and Freddie. The taxpayer and investors are getting hosed while the insiders and Pols continue to stream money to them selves.
Adjustment of figures.
1 Friday, 15 August 2008 12:14
Dhamlin888
It's disturbing that figures can be changed as far back as three years. Can't they get it right in current reports?

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