|
In the second quarter of 2008, real Gross Domestic Product increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent, after having increased 0.9 percent in the first quarter, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the same report, GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2007 was revised downward from 0.6 to -0.2. This is the first time GDP has decreased since 2001. In addition, annual growth figures for 2005, 2006, and 2007 were revised downward.
The chart below shows the contribution of the different sectors of the economy to total GDP growth from 2006 to the present. In the recent quarter, consumption, net exports, and government spending contributed positively to GDP growth, while residential and nonresidential investment contributed negatively. Changes in consumption added 1.08 percentage points to GDP growth this quarter. Within this category, slower motor vehicle purchases caused a drop in sales of durable goods (defined as goods expected to last three years or longer), though this was partially offset by a rise in sales of furniture and households goods. Sales of nondurable goods, another subset of consumption, increased, with only a slight decrease in sales of fossil fuel sales, which may reflect a change in driving habits. Sales of services also increased, although spending on transportation services decreased slightly. In contrast, in the first quarter sales of both durable and nondurable goods decreased. Slower growth in residential investment ("housing" in our chart) subtracted 0.62 percentage point from GDP growth. This is smaller than the decrease in previous quarters. In other words, the downturn in the housing sector (more specifically, construction of new housing) is still dragging down GDP growth but by a smaller amount than in 2006 and 2007. Nonresidential fixed investment added 0.25 percentage point to GDP growth. Within this category, decreases in equipment sales, especially transportation equipment, were outpaced by growth in spending on nonresidental structures. This figure, however, was dwarfed by a large drop in private inventories. The change in private inventories subtracted 1.92 percentage points from GDP growth. Interpreting this decrease poses a problem. On the one hand, it may mean that firms are anticipating fewer sales, or receiving fewer orders, and so are producing less and drawing down their inventories. On the other hand, it could mean that sales have unexpectedly jumped, in which case falling inventories would be a positive signal. Here inventories are considered investment because they are made up of goods that were produced in anticipation of future sales. Trade in goods and services was a large contributor to GDP growth in the second quarter. An increase in exports added 1.16 percentage points to GDP growth, reflecting strong sales by goods producers. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, declined as well, which added another 1.26 percentage points to GDP growth. All sectors of government grew last quarter, which added 0.67 percentage point to GDP growth.
|
Mr. Meltzer, while I agree with you that some important government agencies are profligate, irresponsible, and sometimes inclined to mislead, I see no reason to believe that this is true of the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The GDP report released at the end of each quarter is called the Advance report, which is a rough estimate of the GDP changes. Later on, as more data becomes available, a Preliminary report is released. Only much later are the figures finalized. There is no subterfuge in this; it is an unavoidable part of data collection. The advance and preliminary reports exist only for the sake of timeliness, since this number has come to have a large degree of importance to the public perception of the economy.